摘要
为了计算水库洪水调度方式综合风险,建立水库洪水调度方式的模糊风险模型。该模型通过水平截集三角模糊数,以风险识别指标值的区间变化表示多种风险源对调度方式风险的影响。结合随机模拟蒙特卡洛方法,计算出水库洪水调度方式模糊风险的区间值。实例分析表明,模糊风险能够表示不同程度的风险,较确定的风险指标值更符合实际,可为决策者提供更多的决策信息。
In order to calculate the synthesis risk of reservoir flood operation mode, the fuzzy risk analysis model is build. The model takes interval variation risk factor values as the influence of all kinds of risk factors and expresses the risk interval variation of operation mode by horizontal cross triangle fuzzy number. By using stochastic simulation Monte Carlo method, the fuzzy risk range of flood operation mode is calculated. The case study shows that the fuzzy risk can express different risk degree and provide more reference information to decision-maker.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2011年第9期73-75,78,共4页
Water Power
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07208-010)
