Gibrat法则是否适用于中国寿险公司——兼论寿险公司规模与成长的影响因素

Is Gibrat's Law Applicable to China's Life Insurance Companies? Study on the Influential Factors of Scales and Growth of Life Insurance Companies

近年来中国寿险市场发展呈现出"寡头主导、大中小共生"的局面。究竟应重点发展"巨无霸"式的金融保险集团,还是应优先发展"船小好掉头"的中小保险公司,这是中国寿险市场面临的一个重要选择。Gibrat法则认为同一行业中的企业,其成长率是独立于其规模的变量,文章对Gibrat法则在寿险业的适用性进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:(1)Gibrat法则对中国的寿险公司不成立,规模越小的公司其成长率越高;(2)寿险公司资产增长率和保费增长率均存在条件收敛效应;(3)寿险公司的产业特点、业务结构和经营产生的外部性会较显著地影响其规模与成长。文章认为中国寿险市场发展的选择如果与本文所揭示的规律相匹配,则寿险业发展会进入良性循环。

In recent years, life insurance market in China shows an oligarchy-led situation with the symbiosis of big, medium and small companies. The life insurance market in China is faced with an important choice concerning its development focus, namely placing emphasis on the development of giant-type financial insurance groups, or giving priority to the development of small- and- medium-sized insurance companies. According to Gibrat ＇s law, the growth rate of firms in the same industry is independent of their scales, and this paper empirically studies the issues abovementioned through testing the applicability of Gibrat＇s law to the life insurance industry in China. The findings are shown as follows： firstly, Gibrat＇s law does not hold in the life insurance industry in China, and the life insurance companies in China with smaller scales have higher growth rates; secondly, there is a conditional convergence effect between asset growth rate and premium growth rate in life insurance industry; thirdly, the industrial charac- teristics, business structures and operation externalities of life insurance companies significantly affect their scales and growth. This paper argues that if the choice concerning the development of China＇s life insurance market can match the laws revealed in this paper, the development of life insurance industry will be in a virtuous circle.