宁夏对外贸易与经济增长的协整分析

The Co-integration Analysis of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Ningxia

以宁夏1980—2008年统计年鉴的数据为样本,对宁夏进出口与经济增长进行协整分析。协整检验结果表明:经济增长率和出口增长率以及滞后一期的出口增长率之间存在长期均衡关系。通过建立误差修正模型和进一步测算,发现在对外贸易的各方面因素中,出口增长对经济增长具有较大促进作用,而进口增长对经济增长的作用不显著。

Based on the sample of data from statistical yearbook from 1980 to 2008 in Ningxia, the co -integration analysis is carried out between foreign trade and economic growth. The resuh of co - integration analysis reveals that there is the long - term equilibrium relationship between the economic growth rate, the growth rate of export and the growth rate of export lagging behind one phase. Through the establishment of error modification model and the further calculation, it is found out that in many factors concerning foreign trade, the export growth has great promotional effect on economic growth, while import growth has no remarkable effect on economic growth.