政府支出与私人消费的关系研究——基于跨国数据(1983-2008年)的面板协整分析

The Empirical Research on the Relation between Government Spending and Private Consumption—The Panel Co-integration Analysis Based on Transnational Data

文章运用面板协整分析方法和世界上36个国家(20个发达国家和16个发展中国家)1983-2008年的面板数据进行跨国研究,通过建立变系数面板模型并结合可支配收入和宏观经济环境的影响,分析了政府支出和私人消费的关系。研究结果显示,总体上而言,样本国家的政府消费支出与私人消费成互补关系,可支配收入仍然是影响私人消费的主要因素,宏观经济环境(经济开放程度和失业率)对消费的影响在统计上很不显著。为了扩大消费,中国政府应实施积极的财政政策、扩大财政支出和提高社会保障水平以及切实解决民生基本难题。

This paper made a multinational research using the method of co - integration analysis and the panel data of 1983 -2008 of 36 countries （20 developed countries and 16 developing countries）, the relation between government spending and private consumption was analyzed through the construction of a variable coefficient panel model combining with the effect of disposable income and the macro - economic environment. According to the findings reported in this paper, on the whole, of the sample country are complementary relationship. government spending and private consumption Disposable income is still the key factor affecting private consumption. The effect of macroeconomic environment （economic openness and unempl consumption is not significant. Finally, we made some policy proposals combining with the oyment rate） on private conclusion of the study.