国际粮价对国内粮价传递效应研究——以大米、小麦和玉米为例

Price Transmission from International Grain to Domestic Grain:Based on Empirical Study of Rice,Wheat and Corn

根据2002年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型以及脉冲响应函数等方法分析了入世以来国际粮食价格对国内粮食价格波动的影响。结果表明:长期而言,国内粮食市场与国际市场的市场整合度不高,价格传递不完全;短期内,国际粮价对国内粮价的影响也较小;国际价格对国内价格变动的贡献在不断加大,但仍处于较低的水平,主要原因来自于进口需求的低水平、政府的边境控制和国内支持政策。

This paper studies the impact of fluctuations of international grain price to domestic grain price empirically by using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2010 and using cointegration test, VECM model and GIRl？. The results suggest that the integration of international grain market and domestic grain market is low in the long run, while in the short term, the impact of international grain price to the domestic one is minus, and the contribution of international grain price fluctuation to the domestic one is increasing but still at a low level, the key reason lies in the low level of import demand, strict border control and domestic support policies.