江淮地区农业气候资源演变特征及作物生产应对措施

Change characteristics of agricultural climatic resources and adaptation measures for crop production in Jianghuai region

随着全球气候变化日趋明朗和世界性粮食安全危机日益严重,农作物对气候变化的响应及应对气候变化的措施已经成为作物科学的研究热点。江淮地区是我国粮食生产的主要区域,探讨该区域气候资源的变化特征及其应对策略,对确保我国中长期粮食持续增长意义重大。依据我国江淮地区32个气象台站的多年逐日气象资料,并结合多年农作物生育进程数据,采用数理统计方法对江淮地区气候资源进行了系统分析。结果表明:48年来江淮地区光、热、水资源发生了明显变化。年均气温、最高气温和最低气温每10年分别平均递增了0.28、0.17和0.38℃;夜间增温幅度高于白天,日温差每10年平均下降了0.21℃。≥0℃和≥10℃的积温增加明显,每10年分别平均递增了92和79℃;年降水总量变化不明显,但年际间波动大;年日照时数和太阳总辐射量呈现下降趋势,平均每年减少了8.1 h和12.3 MJ.m-2。从稻麦的实际响应来看,小麦播期推迟,成熟期提前,总生育期缩短4 d;而水稻播期提前,成熟期也提前,总生育期基本不变。去除技术影响后的稻麦产量呈波动上升趋势,稻麦历史产量主要与最低气温正相关,与降水量无显著相关性。最后针对江淮地区气候资源演变特征和作物生产发展趋势,就江淮地区未来气候变暖情形下作物生产的应对策略提出了一些具体措施。

Climatic change is expected to strongly affect global food security.The adaptation and mitigation options of crop to climatic change are becoming a new frontier in crop sciences.Jianghuai region plays an important role in Chinese grain security.Assessing responses and adaptation of cropping system in this area is of great importance to long term grain production in China.This paper analyzed the evolution of climatic resources in Jianghuai region,employing daily weather data and crop growing data from more than 32 meteorological stations in combination with mathematical statistical methods.The results showed that climatic resources（e.g.water,thermal resources,and solar radiation）in Jianghuai region have changed pronouncedly over the past 50 years.The annual mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased about 0.28,0.17 and 0.38 ℃ per ten years,respectively,leading to a decrease in the diurnal range of temperature of 0.21 ℃ per ten years.The accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ and mean minimum temperature increased markedly by 92 and 79 ℃ per ten years,respectively.The mean annual precipitation maintained relatively stable,and the annual solar radiation and sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend of 8.1 h and 12.3 MJ·m-2 per year,respectively.Seen from the actual response of wheat and rice,the sowing date of wheat was delayed,maturity date was moved up,and the growth duration was shortened by 4 days.The sowing and maturity of rice was ahead of time,and the growth duration did not change.The rice and wheat yield removed of technology factors showed a volatile rise trend,and the historical yield of rice or wheat was in a significantly positive correlation with the lowest temperature,but had no correlation with precipitation.Finally,according to the change characteristics of climatic resources and crop production in Jianghuai region,we proposed some measures to adapt to the future climatic change.