反馈系统发展规划的对策实施效应仿真评价

Countermeasures implementation effect evaluation of a feedback system's development program by simulation

德邦规模养殖生态经济区是国家战略《鄱阳湖生态经济区规划》产业区,此生态经济系统是一个生态能源经济复杂反馈系统,系统发展问题具有普遍性,对其管理对策未来实施对规划目标实现的未来效应进行仿真评价.首先,基于反馈系统发展规划目标和对策,使用变量因果链倒推方法确定评价指标体系.接着,用评价指标体系用逐步缩小法建立流位流率系,对实际系统变量进行相关分析,建立流位流率系下因果关联关系的流率基本入树基本模型.再次,依据系统历史年数据及基本规划值,系统变量基本计算公式,应用系统动力学的表函数、选择函数、阶跃等函数,建立七棵流率基本入树的仿真方程,建立仿真模型.最后,进行对策实施调控仿真,分析对策实施对系统规划目标实现的定量促进效应,进行仿真评价,定量论证了所制定的管理对策的正确性,为系统发展提供决策依据.

Debang Pig Farming eco-economics zone with the scale breeding is an industrial zone for Poyang lake eco-economics zone program of national strategy.The eco-economics system is a complex feedback system,the problem is universality.The paper takes the quantitative simulation evaluation for management countermeasures future effect.Firstly,based on Program goal and countermeasures,the paper established the evaluating indicator system of cause and effect chain retrodict.Then,according to evaluate indicator,it established level and rate system by gradually reduced method,based on real system variable relative analysis,it established cause and effect rate in-tree model by level and rate system.Thirdly, based on history year data and basic program value,system variable basic formula,applying System Dynamics table function,selection function,step function,etc.it builds seven rate variable fundamental in - tree simulation equations and models.Lastly,it respectively simulates the effect of management countermeasures for program goal.It quantitatively proves the validity of management countermeasures and supplies the decision basis for system development.