传染病传播模型综述

Survey of transmission models of infectious diseases

建立传染病传播模型是理解传染病流行机理,预测流行趋势,进行防控决策的基础.将传染病传播模型分为单一群体模型,复合群体模型和微观个体模型三类.单一群体模型从宏观角度刻画了集计量的变化,以经典的SIR为基础,在仓室设置、年龄结构、随机性、异质性等方面进行了扩展.复合群体模型将人群划分为多个子群体,子群体之间因人口流动而耦合,适合研究具有空间异质性的跨地区传播问题.微观个体模型的出发点是个体状态和行为,所有个体形成接触网络.这类模型有理想网络和现实网络两个研究方向,理想网络关注接触网络特性对传染病传播动力学的影响,现实网络致力于揭示社会接触的实际特征,构建足够真实的模拟网络,研究传染病的传播.这三类模型各有特点,分别具有各自的适用领域,应根据研究目的和问题特点选择合适的建模方法.

Modeling the transmission of infectious disease is the basis of understanding the mechanism of epidemic,collecting data,forecasting,and preventing its spread.Epidemical models are classified into single population,meta-population and microscopic models.Single population models describe the aggregate variables on the macro level;which is based on the classical SIR,and have been extended in compartment setting,age structure of population,stochastic and heterogeneity.Meta-population models divide population into sub-populations,which are coupled because of human mobility.Meta-population models are appropriate to multi-regional epidemics with spatial heterogeneity.Microscopic models focus on the property and behavior of individuals.Epidemics spread on contact network.Those models progress in idealized network and real network.Idealized network emphasis the relationship between the characteristics of typical networks and the dynamic of epidemics.Real network focus on the empirical features of social contacts,and investigate the spread of epidemic on simulated network.Finally,we summarize the feature of those models,and advice their suitable problems and applications.