河南省化石能源利用及工业生产过程碳排放的估算——基于2000～2009年数据的实证

Estimation on Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Industrial Product ion from 2000 to 2009 in Henan Province

为了探求河南省化石能源消耗及工业生产过程对省域碳循环影响，利用ORNL和EEA提出的区域碳排放和碳吸收定量模型，估算并分析了2000-2009年河南省域碳均衡动态变化。结果表明：2000-2009年河南省碳排放量为119295．76×10^4t，其中化石燃料排放量占碳排放总规模92．3％，工业生产过程碳排放为7．7％；煤炭消耗是化石能源利用中最大碳源，占化石能源碳排放总量的89．53％，其次分别是水泥生产和原油耗用，燃料油消费碳排放量最小，仅占0．43％；近10年来河南省人均碳排放量逐渐递增，并于2003年超出全国平均水平，同期万元GDP的碳排放强度先增后降，能源利用效率提高明显；河南省城市化水平与同期碳排放规模拟合度高达0．975，是驱动省域碳排放量迅速增长的重要因素；最后提出河南省减少碳排放、增加碳吸收的措施建议。

In order to explore the impact of carbon cycle in fossil fuel use and industrial production, this paper estimated the dynamic changes of the carbon emission and carbon absorption from 2000 to 2009 in Henan province by the quantitative model. The results showed that the total carbon emission was 119295.76x104t during the 2000 to 2009 in Henan province, among which 92.3% comes from fossil fuel combustion and 7.7% from industrial production process. The carbon emission from coal was highest among all kinds of fossil fuels, occupying 89.53% of total emission from fossil fuel, the second and third is cement production and oil consumption respectively, and the contribution from fuel oil consumption is least, just 0.43%. The carbon emission increased progressively year by year during 2000-2009, and surpassed the national average level in 2003, while the carbon emission for ten thousand Yuan GDP was dropping by 25% at the same time. The carbon absorption was 387.57×10^4t in 2009 in Henan , which increased by 67% during past 10 years, while the carbon emission increased to 1.925 times during the same time that lead to carbon deficit grewed rapidly, and reached at 12886.92×10^4t in 2009. Finally, this paper put forward some measures for the policy-making of carbon emission reduction in Henan province.