人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革

THE ROLE OF THE RENMINBI IN THE REFORM OF THE GLOBAL MONETARY SYSTEM

从美国债务上限调整的议案及美国信贷主权评级的下调,可见现行由美元和欧元所组成的二元国际货币体系并不稳定。为测度出人民币的引入能否增加国际货币体系的稳定性,本文先建立面板回归模型分析影响一国货币国际化的基础条件因素,并在模型的基础上,测度出人民币在可自由兑换后将成为一个能与欧元相互抗衡的国际货币。通过方差比较,本文论证了由美元、欧元和人民币三种货币所组成的外汇储备组合较二元体系下的稳定,说明人民币国际化有助于改革现行的二元体系,使国际货币体系发展成为更稳定的三元体系,从而促进全球经济的健康发展。

Both the recent debt ceiling crisis of the U. S. and the downgrade of its credit rating served to refocus on the stability of the current bipolar international monetary system. Given China＇s increasing influence in the world economy, we argue in this paper that the internationalization of the Renminbi would strengthen the international monetary system by transforming the current regime into a tripolar one. Using a panel regression model, we first investigate empirically the determinants of the status of a reserve currency and simulate the share of the Renminbi in the international reserve holdings. By assuming free convertibility of the Renminbi, our results indicate that its potential as a reserve currency would be comparable to that of the euro by 2020. We further show that the international reserve holdings composed of the dollar, the euro and the Renminbi would be more stable than that under the bipolar international monetary system.