基于累积前景理论的公路建设项目灰关联排序模型

Grey Correlation Priority Decision Model of Highway Construction Project Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

考虑决策者风险态度对公路建设项目决策实施的影响,针对公路建设项目决策实施影响因素的灰色特征,设计了公路建设项目影响参数,提出了一种基于累积前景理论的公路建设项目灰关联排序模型。该模型通过[-1,1]线性变化将原始矩阵标准化,应用TOPSIS法得到正负理想方案作为公路建设项目排序决策的参考点;将正负理想方案和公路建设项目分别作为参考数列和被比较数列,应用关联分析法构建了正负关联系数矩阵,并基于累积前景理论及其正负前景价值函数构建了正负前景价值矩阵和方案综合前景值最大化的非线性规划模型,应用极值法求解模型得出最优权向量,最终确定公路建设项目的排序。最后以5条公路建设项目排序为例,与AHP和灰关联投影法进行对比分析,从侧面验证了该模型的可行性与有效性。

Considering the risk attitude impact of decision makers on priority decision of highway construction projects and the grey character of influencing factors, the influence parameters of priority decision designed, and a grey correlation priority decision model for highway construction projects based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed. First, the [ - 1, 1 ] linear transformation operator was used to standardize the original decision-making matrix and the positive and negative ideal schemes obtained by the way of TOPSIS were taken as the reference points of priority. Second, taken the positive/negative ideal schemes and highway construction projects as reference sequence and compared sequence respectively, the positive and negative correlation coefficient matrixes were established by using relation analysis method. Third, the positive and negative prospect value matrixes and the nonlinear planning model for the maximum of comprehensive prospect value were builtup on the basis of cumulative prospect theory and its prospect value functions, the optimum weight vector was solved by extreme-value method, and the priority of highway construction projects was determined. Finally, the model was applied in the sequence of five highway constraction projects, and was verified feasible and effective compared with AHP and grey relation projection multi-criteria decision method.