海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型研究

The Break-even Model Study of the Minimum Economic Reserves Size for Overseas Oil&Gas Exploration Projects

国内利用盈亏平衡原理,建立最小经济储量规模模型应用成熟,而海外油气勘探项目由于财税条款复杂,盈亏平衡法在最小经济储量计算中的应用还是空白。在分析海外项目矿税制、产品分成制合同者收入、投资、税金等特点的基础上,力图建立合同者收入、投资、成本、税金等和储量的数学关系。假定成本回收油全部用来回收成本,较好地处理了产品分成制下合同者的收入问题;引入单位综合税金,解决海外油气项目复杂的税金问题;通过建立最小储量规模和利润油气分成系数之间的迭代计算,较好地处理滑动的分成系数和最小储量规模的关系。在此基础上,依据盈亏平衡、投入产出相等原理,建立海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型,并给出单位综合税金、利润油气分成系数等主要参数的取值原则。利用模型,计算了中国石化某海外天然气勘探项目在不同资金时间价值下的最小油气储量规模,并与现金流法得到的最小储量规模结果进行比较,对盈亏平衡模型进行了讨论。

Using break-even model to calculate the minimum economic reserves size for domestic oil＆gas exploration projects is popular,while it is still in blank for overseas oil＆gas exploration projects due to their complex fiscal provisions.Based on the research of the characteristics of contractors＇ income,investment and taxes under mining tax and production sharing system for overseas projects,the paper intends to establish mathematical linear relationships between contractors＇ income,investments,costs,taxes and reserves.Assuming full recoverable cost oil would be used to recover cost,the model gives contractors＇ income under PSC.Inte- grated unit taxes are first introduced,and complex taxes issues for the oversea oil＆gas projects may be solved.And through establishing iterative calculation between the minimum economic reserves size and profit oil＆gas sharing coefficients,the model may make a relationship between the sliding sharing coefficient and the minimum economic reserves size.Break-even model of minimum economic reserves size is established for overseas exploration projects by means of its principle that input equals output.And value choosing principle of some principal parameters including integrated unit taxes,profit oil＆gas sharing coefficient is provided.Using the established break-even model above,the minimum economic reserves size of certain overseas gas exploration project of Sinopec is calculated under various capital budgeting,and compares with the results by means of NPV method.The model＇s feature is discussed finally.