世界汽柴油标准及供需发展趋势浅析

A Brief Analysis of the Trends in Global Gasoline and Diesel Standards and Supply-Demand Relations

清洁燃料的发展,尤其是北美、西欧以及日韩等部分亚太地区国家的清洁燃料发展已经非常成熟,无论从标准的制定及实施、技术的开发及应用、国家政策的激励等等方面,都积累了相当的经验,为发展中国家清洁燃料的发展奠定了基础。尽管目前全球汽柴油质量存在差异,但世界汽柴油需求仍处于稳步增长态势,尤其是全球清洁汽柴油需求的比例在逐年提高。主要从全球汽柴油标准、质量以及供需现状等进行调研,分析未来20年世界各地区汽柴油的变化趋势以及需求走向,指出全球汽油、柴油标准虽然因各国汽柴油生产装置结构不同、加工原油种类不同以及受气候等诸多因素影响,各国汽柴油标准中的各种限值有所不同,但是硫含量逐渐降低并趋于无硫化将是大势所趋;指出欧美等国受燃油经济性标准不断提高等多种因素影响,在2030年前的汽油需求将呈现下降,柴油需求将略有增长,而亚太、中东等发展中国家则将处于稳步增长趋势。

North America,West Europe and some of Asian Pacific countries such as Japan and South Korea have established very mature clean fuel development and application systems.They have accumulated rich experience in formulating and enforcing standards,developing and using technologies and enacting policy incentives.Such experience could be used by developing countries for reference in developing clean fuels. Although globally gasoline and diesel fuels vary in quality from country to country,the world＇s demand for gasoline and diesel fuel is still rising steadily and particularly the share of clean gasoline and diesel fuel in all gasoline and diesel used is rising yearly.This article studies the standards,quality and supply and demand for gasoline and diesel fuels worldwide and analyzes the trends in the quality and demand for gasoline and diesel fuels worldwide in the next 20 years.According to the article,although many value limits for gasoline and diesel fuels vary from country to country ,due to a combination of factors such as different structures of gasoline and diesel fuel production units,different crude feeds and climate factors,an apparent trend is that the content of sulfur is declining gradually towards zero.Due to a combination of factors such as increasing fuel economy standards,gasoline demand in European and American countries will decline by 2030 and diesel demand will rise slightly,while in developing countries in the Asia Pacific Region and the Middle East, gasoline and diesel demand will grow steadily .