消费品零售总额与GDP的长期均衡及因果关系——基于中国改革开放30年数据的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis of Long-term Equilibrium and Cause Relationship between Social Retail Goods and GDP ——Based on the Data since Reform and Opening-up

消费与经济增长之间的因果关系在理论和实践中存在着争论,选取中国改革开放30年来(1979～2008)的统计数据进行实证研究,以社会消费品零售总额作为指标变量与GDP的增长关系进行长期均衡检验。首先利用E-G两步法对变量平稳性考察,综合趋势项与截距项的三种模型结果,建立ECM模型,然后应用Granger因果检验对变量之间的因果关系进行经验性研究。结果表明,样本区间内SRG和GDP之间存在长期均衡关系,且GDP的增长是SRG增长的格兰杰原因,但反向因果关系并不成立。进而针对目前国内SRG和GDP增长之间的互动关系提出一系列建议。

The issue between consumption and economic growth has attracted considerable attention. This pa- per empirically investigates the hypothesis of a causal relationship between social retail goods（SRG） and GDP in China over the last thirty years since Reform and Opening cointegration ＂ Granger casusality techniques, this paper result of cointegration reveals the long - term equilibrium causality, the finding herein suggests that GDP is the -up. After analysis on these data using standard ＂pre - employs modem vector autoregression methodology. The between SRG and GDP. Using the concept of Granger - Granger - causality of SRG, but this is not sustained in the reverse direction. Finally, the paper gives a series of suggestions on the inter - reaction between consumption and economic growth.