中国农村金融发展与农民收入增长的实证研究——基于1978～2009年的数据检验

Empirical Study of China Rural Financial Develpoment and Income Growth of Farmers——Based on the Data of 1978～2009

运用主成分分析、VAR模型及格兰杰因果检验等实证方法,对1978～2009年中国农村金融发展与农民收入增长关系进行计量检验。结果显示,农村传统正式金融是农村金融的主体,但农村正式金融与农民收入增长之间不存在格兰杰因果关系,仅有农村非正式金融是农民收入的格兰杰原因。

In this paper, principal component analysis, VAR model and Granger causality test are used to test the relationship between rural financial development and growth of farmers＇ income in China from 1978 to 2009. The result shows that the traditional rural formal finance is the main Granger causal relationship between rural formal finance and farmers＇ farmers＇ income is only rural informal finance. body of rural finance ; however, there is no income ; furthermore, the Granger reason of