农村居民消费与经济增长关系的实证分析——以辽宁省为例

Empirical Analysis on the Relations between Rural Residents' Consumption and Economic Growth

运用灰色关联法对不同阶段辽宁省农村居民各项消费对人均GDP的影响进行分析。结果表明,农村居民的消费水平在不断提高,但是对经济增长的贡献率呈波动下降趋势;居住支出处于消费支出的主要地位;文教娱乐用品及服务消费占重要地位;交通和通讯支出增长缓慢;医疗保健支出较低,对经济增长的贡献相对弱。提出通过发展农村经济、增加农村居民收入、改善农村的消费环境、加快农村基础设施的建设、建立和完善农村社会保障制度以及扩展农村消费信贷市场的政策建议,以此扩大农村居民消费需求,实现经济持续健康发展。

By using the grey correlation method,the influences of rural residents＇ consumption at different periods to per capita GDP are analyzed,the results show that the consumption level of rural residents were increasing,but their contribution rate on economic growth showed the descending tend.The residential expenses stay in the major position of consumption expenses;the education and entertainment products and service consumption play an important role;the growth of transportation and telecommunication is slow;the expenses on medical care is low and its contribution rate on economic growth is relatively weak.The countermeasures on developing rural economy,increasing rural residents＇ income,improving rural consumption environment,accelerating rural infrastructure construction,constructing and perfecting rural social security system and expanding rural consumption credit market are put forward to expand rural residents＇ consumption demand and realize the sustainable development of economy.