基于产量潜力预测的我国小麦单产分析

Analyses on Wheat Yield in China Based on the Prediction of Yield Potential

从小麦光合生产潜力、历年单产演变趋势、农作制区划潜力3个方面分析了我国小麦单产不同时期最高增产幅度:光能利用率潜力、历年产量演变趋势外推潜力、AEZ(农业生态区划)模型计算的我国小麦单产潜力,指出我国不同时期小麦单产的最高年增幅为:1991年以前10%;1996年以前9%;2000年以前8%。任何高于以上增幅的小麦品种或栽培技术都只能是局部推广的或有统计误差的。这对指导我国小麦生产具有参考意义。

The maximum yield growth range of per unit wheat yield in China is analyzed from three aspects including photosynthesis production potential of wheat,the changing trend of per unit wheat in the previous years and potential of distribution area agricultural crops.In the paper,the potential of using light,the external potential of historical yield evolution tend and AEZ（agricultural ecological zone） are applied to calculate the per unit yield potential of Chinese wheat.The results show that the maximum growth range of per unit yield in different stages was different： before 1991,the growth range was 10%;before 1996,the growth range was9%;before 2000,the growth range was 8%.Any variety of wheat and planting technology higher than above the growth range can only be promoted in restricted area and has the statistical error.The results are of reference significance to Chinese wheat production.