基于模糊层次分析法(FAHP)的农业产业链风险因素评估——以武陵山民族地区为例

Evaluation on the Risks of Agricultural Industrial Chain Based on FAHP

通过产业链风险因素的识别,选择适当发的评估方法,构建了产业链风险因素评估指标体系,包括市场风险、自然风险、契约风险、效率风险4个层次,下设26个衡量指标。以武陵山民族地区为例,采取模糊层次分析法(FAHP),对该地区的农业产业链风险因素进行评估,分析各风险因素对违约风险的影响程度。结果表明,就市场风险层面、契约风险层面、自然风险层面和效率风险层面而言,来源于自然风险层面的风险因素最高,自然风险成为农业产业链风险因素中最重要的风险,是必须引起高度重视的;违约成本低是企业和农户选择违约的一个重要因素;旱涝、病虫害和疫情也是必须引起高度监视的风险因素;来源于效率风险层面的风险因素,比如企业间利润分配不公等对产业链风险的影响并不大。研究结果为制定风险防范措施提供了依据。

Through recognizing the risking factors of industrial chain and selecting appropriate evaluation method,the indicator system on evaluating risking factors in industrial chain is constructed including market risk,natural risk,contact risk and efficiency risk,26 weighting indicators under the four layers are set up.Taking ethnic groups in Wuling Mountain as an example,the risking factors of agricultural industrial chain in the area are analyzed by adopting the FAHP.The influencing degree of each risking factor on credit risks is analyzed.The results present that with the market risk,contract risk,natural risk and efficiency risk.The natural risks become the principal risks of agricultural industrial chain and it should be paid much attention to.The low credit risk is a major factor that causes the contract between enterprise and rural households.The flood,pests,diseases and disasters also should be paid high attention to that is regarded as risking factors.The risking factors that come from the efficiency risk layer,for example,the unequal profit distribution among enterprises has little effect on industrial chain enterprises.The research results provide evidence for stipulating risk prevention measures.