电网规划中常规中长期负荷预测方法的探讨

Network Planning in the Conventional Method of Load Forecasting

电力负荷的不断增长是电网发展的根据,正确地预测电力负荷,既是为了保证国民经济发展及人民生活对电力的需求,也是电网自身发展的需求。电力负荷预测工作是电网规划工作的重要组成部分,也是电网规划的基础工作。在掌握铜陵地区经济、电网历史实绩的前提下,探讨了在电网规划中运用中长期常规负荷预测的几种方法,得出铜陵地区中长期负荷预测结果,以便为铜陵地区电网发展提供与此相适应的负荷保证。

The growing power load is the basis of the development of power grid. To correctly forecast the power load is the requirement of both national economic development and people＇s life, but also of the power grid＇s development. Power load forecasting is not only an important part ,but the basic work of power grid＇s planning. On the premise of having mastered the history and reality of economic and power grid in Tongling, this article will discuss several methods which used in the conventional long-term load forecast, so as to provide the guarantee suitable for the development of regional power grid.