中国经济发展系统动态仿真研究

Dynamics Simulation of Economic System of China

本文运用系统动力学方法,通过对经济过程和结构的分析,构建经济发展模型,并对中国经济发展进行了动态仿真。模型的基础运行结果表明,中国目前还处于一种过度依赖自然资源环境的不可持续的发展状态,随着自然资源迅速枯竭,环境污染持续加剧,经济系统最终会走向迅速崩溃。通过调整政策参数组合,本文得出实现经济可持续发展的两种方案,以及经济不可持续发展、经济基本可持续、经济理想可持续三种发展情境,进而提出应采取的应对政策措施。

Based on analysis of the process and structure of economy, economic development model is built by system dynamics. With the model simulated, basic results show that, economy of China is still in an unsustainable situation, depending on natural resources and environment excessively. If natural resources would be exhausted rapidly and environmental pollution would be intensified persistently, economic system will eventually collapse. By adjusting policy parameters, we concluded two solutions to realize economic sustainable development, and three future situations, including economic unsustainable, basic economic sustainable, ideal economic sustainable. Then some policies and measures which should be taken to deal with problems we faced are put forward.