汇率预期、外汇供给与外汇储备

Exchange Rate Expectation,Foreign Exchange Supply and Foreign Exchange Reserve

基于货币资产组合思想和外汇储备供求理论,本文综合运用理论和实证的研究方法分析了汇率预期、外汇供给和外汇储备三者之间的关系。理论研究发现:直接标价法表示的汇率预期波动对非国际货币发行国的外汇供给具有反向影响,而且这种反向影响随着预期汇率大小的不同具有分段特征;为了维持汇率的相对稳定,外汇供给增加的冲击会导致非国际货币发行国的外汇储备增加,但即期汇率的变化方向并不确定;总体而言,预期汇率波动对非国际货币发行国外汇储备具有反向影响。基于中国数据的实证研究很好地支持了理论分析的结论。

Based on the ideology of monetary portfolio and the supply and demand theory of foreign exchange reserve, the interrelationships of exchange rate expectation, foreign exchange supply and foreign exchange reserve are analyzed comprehensively by theoretical method and empirical method. Theoretical research shows that： The fluctuation of exchange rate expectation measured by direct quotation has a negative impact on the foreign exchange supply of the non - international currency country, and the negative impact is a piecewise function of exchange rate expectation ; In order to maintain exchange rate relatively stable, the increment of foreign exchange supply will lead to an foreign exchange reserve increment in non - international currency country, but the change direction of spot exchange rate is uncertain; Generally speaking, the fluctuation of exchange rate expectation measured by direct quotation has a negative impact on the foreign exchange supply of the non - international currency country. The conclusions of theoretical research are well supported by an empirical research based on Chinese data.