基于SVM与DT的核电装备制造业供应风险组合预测模型

Combined Prediction Model for Supply Risk in Nuclear Power Equipment Manufacturing Industry Based on Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree

基于对核电装备制造业供应风险的识别,确立风险预测的指标体系;对国内3家重点核电装备制造企业及其60家供应商进行问卷调查及深度访谈,运用支持向量机与决策树组合的方法建立供应风险的预测模型。实证研究表明,组合预测模型对供应风险预测的精确性优于单一方法的模型,证明了该预测体系的可行性与可靠性,为核电装备制造业供应风险的管理提供了一种对供应商进行考评、测量供应风险度的方法。

The prediction index for supply risk is developed based on the factor identifying of nuclear equipment manufacturing industry.The supply risk prediction model is established with the method of support vector machine and decision tree,based on the investigation on 3 important nuclear power equipment manufacturing enterprises and 60 suppliers.Final case study demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single prediction model,and demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of this model,which provides a method to evaluate the suppliers and measure the supply risk.