1968～2007年民乐气候特征奇异谱分析

Singular Spectrum Analysis on the Climatic Characteristics of Minle County during 1968-2007

利用奇异谱分析、Kendall非参数检验方法对甘肃省民乐县1968～2007年的月平均气温、降水量、平均风速和相对湿度行了分析,探讨该县40年来气候特征。结果表明,除固有的年际变化以外,气温存在明显的16、20个月的周期,且上升趋势明显;降水存在4、8、24个月的显著周期,无明显变化趋势;风速呈缓慢减小趋势,无明显周期特征;相对湿度无明显的周期变化,呈缓慢减小趋势。

Singular spectrum analysis and Kendall non-parametric test were used to analyze the monthly average temperature,rainfall,average wind speed and relative humidity in Minle County of Gansu Province during 1968-2007,and discuss its climatic characteristics during the recent 40 years.As indicated by the results,apart from the inherent interannual variation,the temperature had obvious 16-month and 20-month cycle with significant ascending tendency;the precipitation showed 4-month,8-month and 24-month cycle without any obvious changes;both the wind speed and relative humidity presented a slow decreasing tendency without obvious cycle features.