我国“两型”农业发展影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Development of Resource-saving and Environment-friendly Agriculture in China

选取我国1989～2009年的数据,对农业总产值与化肥施用量、农用机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、成灾面积进行了回归分析。结果表明,化肥施用量与成灾面积对农业产值具有显著影响,是影响"两型"农业建设的重要障碍;农用机械总动力与有效灌溉面积对农业产值的影响不显著。基于此,提出了促进"两型"农业发展的建议:转变农业生产方式,优化农业产业结构;推广化肥科技化施用,提高农业抗风险能力;促进农村沼气的发展,开展农村生物质资源的综合利用。

By selecting the data from 1989 to 2009 in China,we conducta regression analysis on the total output value of agriculture,the usage amount of chemical fertilizer,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area,which are and the damage area.The results show that the usage amount of chemical fertilizer and the damage area,the great obstacles to the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly agriculture,have significant impact on the output value of agriculture;total power of agricultural machinery and effective irrigation area have insignificant impact on the output value of agriculture.Based on these,the suggestions for promoting the development of resource-saving and environment-friendly agriculture are put forward as follows： transform agricultural production mode,and optimize the industrial structure of agriculture;promote scientific use of chemical fertilizer,and promote the ability of agriculture to resist risks;promote the development of biogas in rural areas,and carry out the comprehensive use of biological material resources in rural areas.