漳卫河平原农业水资源高效利用的模拟研究 Ⅰ.参数率定和模拟验证

Study on utilization of agricultural water resources with high efficiency in Zhangwei river plain Ⅰ.Parameter calibration and validation

为了优化漳卫河平原地区的农田灌溉制度,本研究以SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)为工具,首先运用洗牌复形演化(SCE-UA)算法在位于该平原及其比邻地区的2个典型试验站率定冬小麦和夏玉米的作物参数,再以遥感监测的蒸散数据为目标,应用拉丁超立方-单次单因素(LH-OAT)方法对SWAT中的相关参数进行敏感性分析,选出了对实际蒸散最敏感的参数,并用序贯不确定性(SUFI-2)算法优化参数进行不确定性分析。在此基础上,对冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系产量的长期模拟结果进行验证。这些参数率定和模拟验证结果为进一步深入研究该地区水分生产函数和优化灌溉制度奠定了基础。

As an important river system of Haihe river plain,Zhangwei river plain is among those typical regions with severely water shortage in Northern China. In this paper, in order to optimize irrigation schedule, Shuffled Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） was used to calibrate the crop parameter of Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） in two stations which are to be or near the plain. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed based on actual evapotranspiration by remote sensing （RS）, and the most sensitive parameters were chose. The next step was to optimize the parameters and give its uncertainty analysis by using ＂Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm＂ （SUFI-2）. Based on the calibrated parameters, under the consideration of uncertainty of the model, the yield of long term simulation of winter wheat and summer maize rotation system were validated. The results of calibration and validation laid a firm foundation for the further research on optimization of water product function and irrigation regime.