基于情境分析的预测方法研究——以呼和浩特市风电发展规划为例

Study on Forecasting Method Based on Scenario Analysis——A Case of the development plan of wind power generation in Hohhot

介绍了呼和浩特市风电产业发展现状,利用单位产值能耗法对2010年～2020年呼和浩特市能源需求进行预测,并在此基础上对内蒙古呼和浩特市风电产业未来10年的发电量进行预测,通过3种情景的构造及分析,提出呼和浩特市风电产业发展战略规划建议。

In this study,the industrial development situation of wind power generation was introduced.It uses method of consumption of energy per unit of output value to predict the energy consumption during the year 2010 to 2020.On that basis,the electric energy production,which was made from wind,was predicted using the method of scenario analysis in the future 10 years.We made suggestions on the industrial development plan of wind power generation in Hohhot by building and analyzing the 3 scenarios.