我国农村金融效率实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on Chinese Rural Finance Efficiency

研究表明1,980-2009年期间我国农村金融整体发展水平较低,微观金融效率受经济金融形势影响波动幅度较大,宏观金融效率从1990起整体呈下降趋势。协整检验表明,农村微观金融效率与农村经济发展水平和农村金融结构正相关,与农村金融发展水平和农村经济结构负相关,宏观金融效率与之相反。格兰杰因果检验表明,农村微观金融效率是农村经济增长的单向格兰杰原因,与其他因素之间不存在任何方向的格兰杰因果关系;农村金融结构是农村宏观金融效率的单向格兰杰原因;农村金融发展水平与其他变量之间不存在任何方向上的格兰杰因果关系。

The empirical result shows that the overall level of China＇s rural financial development is rather low during the period from 1980 to 2009 in which the rural micro-financial efficiency has a wider fluctuation margin influenced by financial and economic situation while the macro-financial efficiency has been on the decline as a whole since 1990. The cointegration test shows that there is a positive correlation between rural micro-financial efficiency and rural economic development and rural financial structure but a negative correlation between rural micro-financial efficiency and rural financial development and rural economic structure ; yet, it is the other way around as for rural macro-financial efficiency. The Granger Causality Test shows that rural micro-financial efficiency is the one-way Granger cause of rural economic growth and there exists no Granger causality with other factors in any direction. The struc- ture of rural finance is the one-way Granger cause of rural macro-financial efficiency and there exists no Granger causality between rural financial development and other variables in any direction.