中、美、日三国货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀的比较分析

Comparative analysis of Money Supply,Economic Growth and Inflation in China,USA and Japan

采用时间序列(VAR)模型描述了货币供给、经济增长和通货膨胀三个变量在中、美、日三国中的相互关系,运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解比较了三个因素具有的长短期特征,研究发现:经济增长过快和货币供给过多是造成通货膨胀的主要原因;通货膨胀在价格层面的经济总量提高,对于推动经济的真实增长没有效用;货币供给对于通胀解释能力在中国显著,而在美国和日本不显著;长期看,美国和日本的前期物价上涨对于当期通胀影响效果显著,而在中国不够显著;经济增长对于通货膨胀的影响在日本和美国解释作用不显著,而在中国有明显解释力。

The relation among three variables money supply, economic growth and inflation in China, USA and Japan is described by using the time series （VAR） model. The Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition are employed to compare the short - and long - term features possessed by three factors. It is revealed in the study that overgrowing economy and oversupplied money are main reasons for inflation. With the increase in the total economic amount at the level of price, inflation is not effective for promoting the real growth of economy. The explaining ability of money supply is significant in China but not significant in the USA and Japan. Long term, the previous price rise in the USA and Japan has a significant effect on the present inflation though it has no significant effect in China. The growth of economy imposes no significant explaining effect on inflation in the US and Japan, but it has a significant explaining ability in China.