多元化企业经营系统脆性控制模型及最优策略

Brittle control model and optimal strategy for diversified company

脆性的激发是导致企业全局性失败或经营困境的关键所在,脆性风险控制则是提高经营系统安全性的重要保障.在企业经营系统脆性风险扩散路径分析的基础上,建立了具有状态依赖的基本风险控制模型和考虑业务增长率与衰减率的改进控制模型,并评估和比较了免疫策略、隔离策略和综合控制3种方案的效果.同时,还进一步讨论了改进控制模型周期解的存在性以及周期控制方案下的最优策略问题.结果表明,不同的控制策略对脆性风险控制而言都能够得到相同的结果,但在相同的目标下,综合控制策略的总成本最小,而免疫策略和隔离策略总成本的大小则依赖于初始条件和临界参数;当任何一次控制方案都不能达到目标时,最佳选择就是采取周期性的综合控制策略.

The excitation of brittleness is the key to overall managerial difficulties,and brittle risk control is the important leverage to improve the security of management system.Based on the path analysis of brittle risk spread in firm＇s business system,the basic state-dependent model and modified control model considering growth rate and decline rate of business are put forward,and the effect of three strategies such as immunization,isolation and integrated control is evaluated and compared.In addition,the existence of periodic solutions of improved model and optimal cycle control strategy are discussed.The results show that different control strategies can provide the same results in terms of risk control.Under the same objective,the total cost of integrated control strategy is the lowest,while the total cost of immunization strategy and isolation strategy depends on the initial conditions and critical parameters.Moreover,the best option is to implement a cyclical comprehensive control strategy when none of the strategies can achieve the goal.