中国城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between China Urbanization and Economic Growth

以我国1978—2009年城镇化率和人均GDP年度时间序列数据为基础,建立反映城镇化水平和经济增长动态关系的向量自回归(VAR)模型;在VAR模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了城镇化进程与经济增长之间的动态影响。为了弥补时间序列数据只包含时间和指标两维信息的缺陷,进一步采用2000—2009年我国31个省市的城镇化率和人均GDP的面板数据,利用横截面、时间和指标三维信息对两者之间的关系进行分析。通过运用面板数据的单位根检验和面板数据协整检验,得出我国城镇化进程与经济发展水平之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。在此基础上,建立面板数据固定效应变系数模型,从弹性角度分析,认为我国城镇化率每提高一个百分点,可以维持7.1%的经济增长。

This paper uses Vector Autoregression（VAR） Model to explain the dynamic relationship between urbanization and economic growth on the basis of time series data-urbanization rate and GDP per capital from 1978 to 2009;then applying impulse response function（IRF） and variance decomposition,this paper analyzes the interaction between the economic growth and urbanization.To cover the shortage that time series data contains only two-dimensional information-time and index,we introduce panel data containing information of cross section-time-index.The unit root test and the cointegration test of panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2009,show that there exists long-term balance relationship between urbanization and economic growth.At last,via making use of fixed effects unrestricted models to measure the urbanization elasticity,we conclude that increasing urbanization rate by a percentage point keeps up economic growth of around 7.1% a year.