二三产业发展对耕地资源数量的影响及其地域差异——基于中国省级面板数据的考察

Impacts of Development of Secondary and Tertiary Industries on the Quantity of Cultivated Land and Its Spatial Variation: A Study Based on China’s Provincial Level Panel Data

经济增长是耕地资源数量变化的重要驱动因素,但在既往的研究中,大多数学者主要考察经济总量对耕地数量的影响,却未对GDP按三次产业进行划分。本文试图探寻第二、第三产业发展对耕地数量变化各自产生了怎样的影响,以及这些影响是否存在着显著的地域差异。文章基于1999年-2008年间中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,通过构建计量模型,考察了二三产业发展对耕地资源数量的影响及其地域差异。研究结果表明:耕地数量的第二、第三产业弹性分别为-0.0108和-0.0470,第三产业GDP提高一个百分比引发的耕地消耗量约为第二产业GDP提高一个百分比引发的耕地消耗量的4.35倍;在全国所有省份,第三产业发展所引发的耕地消耗量均大于第二产业发展所引发的耕地消耗量;二三产业发展对耕地数量减少的贡献率存在着显著的地域差异,按贡献率的高低可将所有省份分为五组。

A multitude of existing studies demonstrates that economic development is an important determinant for variations in the quantity of cultivated land. However, what impacts development of secondary and tertiary industries can influence variations in the quantity of cultivated land. Whether the impacts vary with region has not yet been studied thoroughly. This study investigated the impacts of development of secondary and tertiary industries on the variation in cultivated land and its regional variation. An economic model was developed to explain the quantity of cultivated land using China’s provincial level panel data during the period 1999-2008. The quantity of cultivated land was collected from China Land and Resources Statistical Year Book, GDP in secondary/tertiary industry and population were collected from China Statistical Year Book. To evade the possible problem of ＂spurious regression＂, the unit root test and integration test were first carried out. Contribution rates of development of the secondary/tertiary industry to the decline in cultivated land for different provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities were computed according to model coefficients. Empirical results show that elasticities of the quantity of cultivated land with respect to the development of the secondary/tertiary industry are -0.0108 and -0.0470, respectively, which means that the decline of cultivated land caused by 1% increase in GDP in the tertiary industry is about 4.35 times that caused by 1% increase of GDP in the secondary industry. In addition, in all 31 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities, the development of the tertiary industry has caused more reductions in cultivated land than the development of the secondary industry, with national average contribution rates of 63.28% and 175%, respectively （46.13% and 166.07% for eastern China, 58.31% and 94.28% for central China, 63.28% and 237% for western China）. There is a significant regional variation in contribution rates of the development of the secondary/tertiary industry to the decline of cultivated land. Contribution rates for the secondary industry range from -292.66% to 538.81%, and that for the tertiary industry ranges from -1485.91% to 1022.73%. All provinces /autonomous regions/municipalities were classified into 5 groups using hierarchical cluster analysis according to their contribution rates.