30年来西安市气候舒适度变化对旅游客流量的影响

Impact of climate comfort degree change on the number of tourists in Xi'an for the last 30 years

利用综合气候舒适指数及相关气候和旅游客流量数据,构建国内外旅游气候模型,分析西安气候舒适度变化对旅游业的影响。结果显示:1)气候舒适度变化对城市国内外旅游有重要影响,综合气候舒适指数每变化1个单位国内及入境游客量将增加或减少1.852万人次和35.263万人次;2)30年来西安市年综合气候舒适指数呈上升趋势,气候舒适度升高,对旅游业发展有促进作用,30年来共使入境和国内游客增加66.7万人次和1269.5万人次;3)1998年以来1-4月和12月气候舒适度明显提高,30年来共使入境和国内游客增加1.9～41.1万人次和35.3～782.8万人次;4)5月和7月气候舒适度明显下降,30年来共使入境和国内游客减少18.9～21.5万人次和359.7～409.1万人次。

Models of domestic and inbound tourists were founded by comprehensive comfort index and relevant data of climate and tourism,and the influence of climate comfort degree change on tourism was analyzed.Result showed that： ① Climate change had a heavy impact on domestic and inbound tourism,the number of domestic and inbound tourists would increase 18,520（or decrease 352,630） if the comprehensive climate comfort index changed one unit.②Comprehensive climate comfort index showed ascendant trend in the last 30 years,the rising of climate comfort degree was helpful for tourism development.The number of inbound tourists was totally increased by 0.667 million in the last 30 years.The number of domestic tourists was totally increased by 12.695 million in the last 30 years.③Climate comfort degree of January,February,March,April have improved obviously since 1998.The number of inbound tourists was totally increased from 19,0000 to 0.411 million in the last 30 years.The number of domestic tourists was totally increased from 0.353 million to 7.828 million in the last 30 years.④Climate comfort degree of May and July have dropped obviously.The number of inbound tourists was totally increased from 0.189 million to 0.215 million in the last 30 years.The number of domestic tourists is totally increased from 3.597 million to 4.091 million in the last 30 years.