中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化及预测分析

Land use change and prediction for ecotone between agriculture and animal raising in northern China

中国北方农牧交错带是我国重要的生态脆弱区和生态屏障,土地利用变化迅速。文中基于遥感数据探讨了20年来北方农牧交错带的土地利用变化;基于2008年的土地利用现状并运用CA-Markov模型,模拟了未来10年(2018)后的土地利用变化情况。结果表明:近20年随着耕地比例下降、林地比例升高,农牧交错带土地利用结构比例趋于合理化,农业用地转为牧业用地和牧业用地转为农业用地是区域土地利用转化的基本特征,影响土地利用变化的主要因素有中国北方气候暖干化趋向,国家实施的生态建设工程以及区域产业结构调整等;如果仍然继续实施目前退耕还林还草的土地利用政策,未来北方农牧交错带土地利用格局将向合理化方向发展,并最终趋于稳定。研究成果可为农牧交错带土地利用优化提供科学依据。

As a significant ecological vulnerability region and barriers,land use of ecotone between agriculture and animal raising in northern China change rapidly.Based on remote sensing image data we discussed the land use change of ecotone between agriculture and animal raising during two decades.Moreover,we simulated future land use scenes in 2018 by the way of CA-Markov model.The results indicated： 1）With the proportion of farmland decreasing,and forestland increasing in this two decades,the land use structure tended to be rational.Land use changes from agriculture to animal raising and from animal raising to agriculture were the basic feature of land use change in this region during two decades.The main factors influencing land use change included warm and dry climate in Northern China,ecological construction projects and regional industrial structure adjustment;2） Future land use pattern of ecotone between agriculture and animal raising in northern China will tend to be rational and finally arrive at balance condition if the government continues implementing current land use policy.The results can provide scientific evidence for land use optimization of this region.