咸阳市气候暖干化及干旱灾害趋势判断

A judgment of warming-drying climate changes and drought disaster trend of Xianyang City

依据咸阳市1961-2009年气象资料,利用Z指数和Mann-Kendall气候突变检验法对咸阳市的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果显示:(1)近49年来,咸阳市出现3年重旱、2年大旱、8年偏旱,重旱大旱年份出现在20世纪80年代中期以后,偏旱年份大部分出现在90年代和21世纪初的几年。(2)各季节重旱年份主要出现在20世纪90年代末到21世纪初;大旱、偏旱年份冬、春季主要出现在80年代,90年代末和21世纪初,夏、秋季主要出现在60、70年代末和90年代初。(3)咸阳市气候呈暖干化趋势,且在1984和1994年发生了变干旱和增温突变;冬、夏季有变涝的趋势,而春、秋季有变干旱的趋势,其中春季变旱趋势强烈。

Based on 1961-2009 meteorological data of Xianyang City,we analyzed the climate change characteristics of Xianyang with methods of Z index and Mann-Kendall test.It was found that there is three years of severe drought,two years of heavy drought and eight years of slight drought in recent 49 years in Xianyang;The year of severe and heavy drought emerged after the mid-1980s,while most of years of slight drought emerged in 1990s and early 21st;The years of severe drought in every seasons mostly emerged in the late 1990s to early 21st;The years of heavy and slight drought in winter and spring emerged in the 1980s and 1990s to early 21st,summer and autumn mostly emerged in 1960s,late 1970s and early 1990s.Xianyang＇s climate has a trend of warming and drying which has a remarkable change in the year of 1980 and 1994.At the same time damping in winter and summer but drying in spring and autumn,while spring drought changed most strongly.