流动还是留守:流动人口子女随迁的选择性及其影响因素分析

Migrant or Left-behind: Behavioral Selectivity and Impact Factors of Children Living with the Migrant Population

要解决留守儿童离开父母成长而带来的种种问题,最重要的是提供有利条件让流动人口子女跟随父母迁移。要进一步为留守儿童提供保护和保障措施,就要依据迁移规律首先了解什么因素影响流动人口子女随迁;因此,流动人口子女随迁的选择性及其影响因素研究对于政府决策具有重要意义。利用2005年1%人口抽样调查数据度量流动人口安排子女随迁的选择性,发现流动人口自身能否提供子女的物质保障是其决策的最重要因素,另外,流动人口的迁移状况和职业性质也会影响其子女随迁。进一步依据中国人民大学的"北京市1‰流动人口调查"数据,用logistic回归模型阐述儿童自身特征、父母社会经济条件、生活条件和社会身份背景等影响因素的作用,研究发现,母亲是否外出、父母外出时间、儿童就学难易程度、住房条件、生活成本是流动人口子女是否随迁最主要的影响因素。

Providing facorable conditions for children migrating with their parents is the key to solve all kinds of problems involving in left-behind children grow up without their parents. In order to provide further protection and security measures to these children, we need to figure out what factors may affect their behavioral selection at first. From this point, both their behavioral selectivity and impact factors are significant for related policy making process. The authors used 1% of the na- tional migrant population survey in 2005 as a data sample, and foud out whether the parents could provide material security were the most important factor matters to their decision-making. In addition, the migration status and occupation conditions may also be the influencing factors. The authors used data from ＂1%o Current Migrant Population Survey＂ made by Renmin University of China at the same time to analyze children＇s own characteristics, parents＇ socio-economic conditions, living conditions and social status though logistic regression model. The result shows mother＇s condition, parents＇ migrant time, educational condition, housing and cost of living are the key factors affecting their decision-making process.