税收负担、税收结构对我国服务业增长影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Tax Burden and Tax Structure on China's Service Industry Growth

文章在Barro内生经济增长模型的基础上,采用我国2001—2009年间省际面板数据,定量研究了服务业税收负担、税收结构对服务业增长的影响。实证分析结果表明:第一,近年来,我国服务业存在明显的增税趋势;第二,服务业税收负担对服务业增长有负作用,但这种负作用存在明显的地区差异。对服务业发达地区,这种负作用显著,但对欠发达地区,这种负作用并不显著;第三,提高服务业直接税的比例有助于促进服务业产出增长。因此,我国在落实服务业的"结构性减税"政策时,应推行地区差别化的税收政策,并对税收结构进行适当调整。

Based on Barro＇ s endogenous growth model, this article studied the impact of tax burden and tax structure on China＇ s service industry growth through province-level panel data from 2001 to 2009. The empirical result shows that recently China＇ s service tax increase obviously. Secondly, service tax burden has a negative impact on service growth and the impact is distinct in different regions. The negative impact is more significant in service developed regions but not signifi- cant in service developing regions. Third, increasing the proportion of service direct tax is good to the growth of service out-put. Therefore, China＇ s government should also take regionally different tax policy and adjust the tax structure properly besides implementing the policy of ＂Structural Tax Cut＂.