日德本币升值下的政策得失及对我国的启示

The Policy Gains and Losses of Japan and Germany under the Currency Appreciation and the Enlightenment for China

在本币升值背景下,日本与德国采取了不同的应对政策。德国首先着眼于国内宏观经济的稳定,放开汇率的波动,从而更好地保持了国民经济的稳定与增长;而日本试图阻止和缓解日元升值压力,其结果却是日元持续急剧升值,并造成了日本高通货膨胀和泡沫经济。综观日本、德国汇率波动的历史可以得到以下启示:人民币汇率升值是必然趋势;坚持货币政策的独立性十分重要;在坚持货币政策的独立性的同时,实现缓慢渐进式汇率改革;区域货币合作有利于区域内强国减少投机资本冲击,减少汇率升值对贸易品部门的负面影响;加快经济发展战略的转型,促使内外经济均衡发展。

In the context of currency appreciation,German monetary policy focused on the domestic macro-economic sta-bility first and liberalized the exchange rate fluctuations to have better controlled the country＇s macroeconomic stability and e-conomic growth.However,in contrast,Japan＇s government attempted to prevent and ease the pressure of the appreciation of the yen,only to find that yen was experiencing sharp appreciation,in addition,inappropriate monetary policy contributed to high inflation and a bubble economy in Japan.Take a wide view of the historical review of Japan and Germany＇s exchange rate fluctuations,we can get the following enlightenment： RMB appreciation has an inevitable trend;sticking to the indepen-dence of monetary policy is of great importance;while upholding the independence of monetary policy,we can achieve slow and gradual reform;regional monetary cooperation is beneficial for regional powers to reduce the impact of speculative capital and reduce the negative impact of the exchange rate appreciation on the traded goods sector;accelerating the transformation of the economic development strategy and promoting balanced economic development inside and outside is fundamental.