深圳对外贸易与现代物流关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Modern Logistics in Shenzhen

为了更好地理解对外贸易和现代物流的关系,从深圳1979～2009年外贸进出口总额和深圳港港口货物吞吐量的数据出发,采用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验方法对深圳对外贸易与现代物流的关系进行实证分析。实证结果得出,在深圳,对外贸易与现代物流存在着统计上的因果关系,二者相互影响,互为因果。

In order to understand well about the relationship between foreign trade and modern logistics,this paper,basing on the statistics of foreign trade volume and port cargo throughput in Shenzhen port from 1979 to 2009,uses Granger test to test the relationship between the two.Empirical results obtain that,in Shenzhen,there is a statistical causal relationship between foreign trade and modern logistics in Shenzhen and they affect each other and reinforce each other.