浙江省松材线虫病发生程度预测预报模型

A pine-wilt disease forecasting model for Zhejiang Province

浙江省是松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus病危害最为严重的省份之一,松材线虫病的防治常滞后于病害的发生及危害。为更好地预测松材线虫病的发生及危害,对浙江省宁海县2004-2008年松材线虫病发生情况进行了监测,结合当地相关气象因子,利用Statistics Analysis System(SAS)软件筛选出影响松材线虫病发生程度的显著相关因子为:平均每公顷枯死树(x3),7月中旬天牛羽化数(x9),7月平均气温(x26)。采用逐步回归的分析法,建立浙江省松材线虫病发生程度的预测预报模型y=0.300 67+1.578 97x3-0.012 22x9+0.001 84x26。

To better predict pine-wilt disease in Zhejiang, one of the provinces with a serious problem in disease prevention often lagging behind occurrence and harm, the disease was monitored from 2004 - 2008 and combined with meteorological data for Ninghai, Zhejiang using the Statistical Analysis System （SAS） to determine the variables affecting the degree of pine-wilt disease the most. Then, stepwise regression was employed to produce a forecasting model. Results showed that dead trees per hectare （x3）, mid-July longicorn feather number （x9）, and average temperature in July （x26） were significant （P〈0.05） variables. The forecasting model with stepwise regression was： y = 0.300 67 ＋ 1.578 97x3-0.012 22x9 ＋ 0.001 84x26. This model will contribute to prevention countermeasures and provide disease. [Ch, 1 fig. 3 tab. 11 ref. ] technical support for sustainably controlling pine-wih