物质资本、人力资本与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于1978—2009年中国数据的实证分析

A Study of the Dynamic Relationship between Physical Capital,Human Capital and Economic Growth——Based on the 1978-2009 Data Analysis in China

现代经济增长理论显示,人力资本和物质资本均是经济增长的重要影响因素。本文通过盘存法和受教育年限法测算我国的物质资本存量和人力资本存量,利用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验方法分别分析人力资本、物质资本和经济增长的相关关系,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型和误差修正(VEC)模型,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解手段研究三者之间的长期动态相关性,分析结果表明:我国物质资本、人力资本和GDP之间存在长期的协整关系,短期内经济增长要依靠物质资本的大量投入,人力资本贡献相对较小,但从长期来看,人力资本对经济增长的贡献具有持续显著的效应。因此,我国应平衡物质资本与人力资本投资比例,加大对教育的投资,提高人力资本存量。

Modern economic growth theories display that human capital and physical capital both nave an important influence on economic growth. With inventory method and years of education calculation method of the physical capital stock and human capital stock, using cointegration and Granger causality test respectively, this article studies the relationship between human capital, physical capital and economic growth and then builds vector auto regression （VAR） model and error correction （VEC） model. What＇s more, it studies the long -term dynamics correlation between human capital, physical capital and economic growth by using impulse response functions and variance decomposition method. The analysis results showed that there is a long - term eointegration relationship between physical capital, human capital and GDP; in the short term economic growth depends a lot on investment in physical capital, but human capital contribution is relatively small; in the long run, the contribution of human capital to economic growth remains significant. Therefore, we should balance the physical capital and human capital investment ratio, and increase investment in education to improve the human capital stock.