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2010年AREM、GRAPES模式预报性能对比检验分析 被引量:17

Prediction Capability Verification of AREM and GRAPES Models in 2010
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摘要 AREM和GRAPES都是四川省气象局的准业务模式,本文通过检验分析发现:两个模式对四川地区夏季降水的评分值都不理想。两个模式模拟低涡系统皆偏弱,直接导致其模拟的风场辐合偏弱,水汽辐合偏小,降水强度偏弱。两个模式预报的四川盆地上空的比湿都偏小,反映局地水汽对降水的贡献偏多,而外部水汽的输送偏弱。尤其是AREM模式对中低层水汽含量的调整非常显著,容易导致其后24小时降水预报的失败。另外,通过与探空资料的比较结果显示:GRAPES模式在250hPa以上层的模拟结果存在明显的误差,对整个高度场的模拟都存在一个系统偏大。 AREM and GRAPES are served as quasi-operational models in Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Bureau.Verification of their performance in 2010 showed that they all got dissatisfactory Ts scales in rainfall prediction.More inspection and analysis revealed that the both models predicted low vortex systems,such as Southwest Vortex weaker in intensity compared with the observation,resulting directly in a lessened rainfall prediction as well as a decreased wind and vapor convergence.Also,the two models predicted less relative humidity.The two models aggrandized the contribution of local vapor,by contraries,undervalued vapor transportation from outside,especially model AREM.It adjusted improperly vapor in the middle troposphere,one of the main reason of failure in rainfall prediction for later 24h.Checked up by the sounding data,GRAPES had an obvious and systematical error above 250hPa,namely,higher than observation.
作者 卢萍 肖玉华
出处 《高原山地气象研究》 2011年第3期8-12,共5页 Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
基金 川气课题2010-青年-08
关键词 检验 西南低涡 探空资料 verification southwest vortex sounding data
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