山东省原油自给能力预测与分析

Forecast and Analysis on Self-sufficient Ability of Crude Oil in Shandong Province

基于1972—2009年山东省原油产量数据和1985—2009年山东省原油消费量数据,通过建立ARIMA(0,2,3)模型和ARIMA(2,1,2)模型,对2010—2015年山东省的原油产量和原油消费量进行了预测,旨在预测和分析2010—2015年山东省原油自给能力的变化趋势。结果表明:2010—2015年各年山东省的原油对外依存度将分别为46.85%、50.52%、54.97%、57.34%、58.75%和61.59%;山东省的原油自给能力将进一步降低。分析认为:山东省原油自给能力降低的主要原因是原油持续性生产受限和原油消费量持续性增长,因此需要通过利用国外市场协调、加大石油勘探力度、发展先进的勘探开发技术、提高石油资源加工转化效率以及加快替代能源开发利用等缓解此趋势。

Based on the data about crude oil production in Shandong during 1972-2009 and crude oil consumption in Shandong during 1985- 2009,this paper constructs ARIMA（0,2,3） model and ARIMA（2,1,2） model to forecast the trend of self-sufficient ability of crude oil in Shandong through forecasting respectively the oil production and the oil consumption in Shandong during 2010-2015. The results show that the external dependence degrees of crude oil in each year during 2010-2015 will be 46.85%, 50. 52%, 54.97% ,57. 34%, 58. 75% and 61.59%, and the self-sufficient ability of crude oil in Shandong will fall further. It considers that the main reasons are the limited persistent production of crude oil and the sustainable growth of crude oil consumption. The measures of easing this trend are as follows： using foreign market to coordinate; in- creasing the oil exploration degree;developing advanced exploration and development techniques; enhancing the processing and conversion effi- ciency of oil resources; speeding up the development of alternative energy sources.