中国农业全要素生产率:动态演变、地区差距及收敛性

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity of China:Dynamic Evolution,Regional Differences and the Convergence

采用1978～2007年的面板数据,运用基于DEA的非参数Malmquist指数方法,在测算了农业TFP的基础上,对TFP的动态演变、结构因素、地区差距及收敛性进行了实证检验。研究发现:中国农业TFP年平均增长率为6.3%,大致经历了三个阶段,即呈现先上升后下降再上升的变动趋势,且东、中、西部TFP增长指数及其构成因素存在明显差异。TFP增长的主要源泉是技术进步,而技术效率的恶化也不容忽视。此外,全国及三大经济带均不存在显著的σ收敛,全国和中、西部出现显著的绝对和条件β收敛,而东部的绝对和条件β收敛却不明显。

By using the panel data from 1978 to 2007, and based on the method of nonparametric Malrnquist index of DEA and the calculation of agricultural TFP, an empirical test is made on the dynamic evolution, structural factors, regional differences and the convergence of TFP. Re- search finds out that the average annual growth rate of China＇s agricultural TFP is 6.3 %, which includes three stages with the tendency from increase to decrease and increase again. The growth indexes of TFP and the component factors in eastern, middle and western China have significant differences. The main source of TFP growth is technical progress, so the decrease of technical efficiency cannot be ignored. Besides, significant σ convergence does not exist in the whole nation and the three economic belts. Significant absolute and conditional β convergence can be found in the whole nation, the middle and western China, while the β convergence is insignificant in eastern China.