自愿性会计政策变更对上市公司年度盈利可预测性的影响

Study on Earnings Predictability affected by Change of Voluntary Accounting Policy

越来越多的公司管理层和证券分析师都基于一定的会计政策对上市公司的未来盈利状况作出预测,但是当盈利预测目标不能达到时,相当多的公司管理层又往往采取自愿性会计政策变更等操控应计利润的手段来达到盈利预测目标或减少盈利预测误差,从而改变公司盈利的正常变化规律,而这一盈利变化规律的改变是否影响公司年度盈利的可预测性,这是一个急需解决的重大理论问题。以1999—2009年间发生了自愿性会计政策变更且上市8年的299家公司为研究样本,进行实证检验,检验结果表明:就长期而言,巨额冲销和政策诱增等恶意会计政策变更公司改变了其年度盈利的可预测性,而收益平滑和正常变更等一般意义上的会计政策变更公司则未改变其年度盈利的可预测性;就短期而言,利用自愿性会计政策变更进行巨额冲销公司的盈利预测可能存在严重高估,而利用自愿性会计政策变更进行收益平滑公司的盈利预测则存在轻微低估;就二者的关系而言,利用自愿性会计政策变更进行巨额冲销和收益平滑公司的盈利预测误差与自愿性会计政策变更对当期利润的影响程度之间,均存在明显的正相关关系。

More and more companies and analysts make the future earnings forecasts on certain accounting policy,But when the object of forecasts doesn＇t reach,more managers will take place voluntary accounting changes to reduce forecast errors or reach the object,and this will change the normal regularity of firms earnings,Then this change is whether it will affect company annual earnings predictability.This is a significant theoretical problem which is urgent to solve.By collecting 299 firms which have taken voluntary accounting changes and have been listed eight years,we find some results by testing those are as the following.1） As for the long-term,the malignant accounting changes companies which include huge amount of write off and earnings management induced by police-based factors have changed the annual earnings predictability,But the common accounting changes firms which include income smoothing and ＇normal changes＇ haven＇t changed the annual earnings predictability.2） As for the short-term,earnings forecasts of the companies which have taken a big bath maybe exist serious overestimation,but that of the firms which have been income smoothing exists tiny underestimate.3） As to their association,there is significant positive association between the earnings forecast errors of firms which include huge amount of write off and income smoothing and current profits by affecting on voluntary accounting changes.