摘要
J曲线效应理论是探讨汇率变动影响出口贸易的重要理论之一,主要通过构建计量经济学模型对人民币汇率影响中国粮食出口贸易进行实证研究,结果表明,该理论在人民币汇率影响中国粮食出口贸易方面得到了证实。研究还进一步显示,中国粮食出口与当年人民币的实际有效汇率显著地呈反向相关关系,且与前二年的人民币名义汇率变动的反向相关程度大于当年的实际有效汇率。此外,出口退税率和技术性贸易壁垒对粮食的出口贸易也产生了较大的影响。
J-curve effect of exchange rate changes, theory is an important theory in export trade, this paper by constructing econometric models on the exchange rate of China＇s food exports to empirical research results show that the theory of the RMB exchange rate of China＇s grain export trade confirmed.Study further shows that Chinese food exports and the current real effective exchange rate of RMB was signifi- cantly inversely correlated with the previous two years and RMB nominal exchange rate is greater than the inverse correlation of the real ef fective exchange rate of the year.In addition, the export tax rebate rate and technical trade barriers on exports of food also had a greater impact.
出处
《经济研究导刊》
2011年第28期70-71,共2页
Economic Research Guide
关键词
汇率
J曲线效应理论
粮食出口
出口退税
exchange rate
J-Curve effect theory
food exports
export tax rebate
