盐城市气候变化趋势的R/S分析

Analysis on the Trend of Climate Variation in Yancheng by Using R/S Method

运用R/S方法,对江苏盐城1960～2010年的平均气温、降水量、降水日数、日照时数进行了分析。结果表明:1960～2010年的平均气温、降水量、降水日数、日照时数等各项指标的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明其存在明显的Hurst现象,反映出盐城市过去51年来气候存在持续性的城市化增暖趋势。并预测,未来盐城市年平均气温持续上升,冬季增温更加明显;冬季降水量将继续增加;未来年降水量和降水日数呈减少趋势;未来日照时数将继续减少。

By using R/S method, in for the past 51 years from 1960 to 2010 in Yaneheng, we analyze the trend of the average temperature, precipitation, days of precipitation, hours of sunshine. The Hurst index are higher than 0.5, indicating that they are obvious Hurst phenomenon, there is trend of climate change components in the past 51 years. It will continue to increase in average temperature and on a decreasing trend in precipitation, it＇ 11 continue to reduce the number of hours of sunshine in the future.