骚扰阿蚊种群动态变化环境因子数学模型的建立

Forming mathematical model for meteorological factors of species variations of Armigeres subbalbeatus

目的通过建立相关的数学模型,分析和探讨环境气象因素对骚扰阿蚊种群动态变化的影响,分析相关环境气象因素的强弱指示性。方法在蒙山大洼林场生境中,用人帐法、网捕法、灯诱法、人工小时法等4种方法采集骚扰阿蚊成蚊,并同时记录采集点的温度、相对湿度、风速、光照度及降雨量等环境气候因素。应用SAS统计,多元性回归分析等方法对相关数据进行处理,建立相关的数学模型。结果 将每一时刻前1 h骚扰阿蚊诱捕数量和相应的温度、相对湿度、光照度及风速作为自变量加入到:yt=yt-1 c+bo+∑bixi+ωt公式中,取置信水平F=2,取得的数学模型是:y=0.553 7+0.577 6C-0.032 1W+0.020 1T(复相关系数为0.95,标准估计误差为0.33)。由此分析表明在影响骚扰阿蚊种群活动动态变化的主要气象因素中风速和温度的作用比相对湿度和光照度更为重要。其他方法分析结果表明影响骚扰阿蚊昼夜叮刺周环的环境因素中,温度和光照度是主要因素,相对湿度和风速次之,降雨量的影响最弱。最适宜骚扰阿蚊种群活动的温度为20～23℃,相对湿度为80%～90%,光照度为1～300 Lx,在风速小于0.50 m/s时,和捕蚊数呈显著的负相关性。降雨量、温度及土壤的相对湿度对骚扰阿蚊季节消长的影响是显著的,而相对湿度、光照度、光照时数、风速却不明显。结论环境气象因素对骚扰阿蚊的种群动态变化具有重要作用,且这种作用是综合性的,强调任何一方都是片面的。

Objective Through forming a mathematical model,to analysis and inquire the influencing factors of the environment meteorological for the species development variations of Armigeres subbalbeatus,and to distinguish more stronger targets of the influencing factors.Methods At Dawa forest farm of the Meng mountain,applying four ways ：human baited net trap,catching with a net,lamp baited trap and labor-hour methods to catch the mosquitoes at the habitat,and recording the meteorological factors in the catching hour.Application the statistical method of SAS and the linear polynomial regression equation to analysis and inquire the influencing factors of the meteorological.Results Putting the independent variable input the formula： yt=yt-1c＋bo＋∑bixi＋ωt,and the independent variable was catch amount of Armigeres subbalbeatus before every one time hour,atmospheric temperature（℃）,humidity（%）,illumination（Lx）,and wind speed（m/s）.And the mathematical model was gained from this： y=0.553 7＋0.577 6C-0.032 1W＋0.020 1T（the compound related coefficient was 0.95,the standard error was 0.33）.It indicated：wind speed（m/s）and atmospheric temperature（℃） were two primary effect factors than humidity（%） and illumination（Lx） in that influenced the biting active of Armigeres subbalbeatus,and the atmospheric temperature（℃） and rainfall were two primary factor that influenced the seasonal distribution.Conclusion The environmental meteorological factors influencing the species variations of Armigeres subbalbeatus are synthetical.