地价与房价关系的探讨——江苏省徐州市的实证研究

Relationship between Land Price and Housing Price:A Case Study of Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province

现有的地价与房价关系研究主要集中于宏观层面,而对房地产市场的区域差异性关注不够。基于2000—2010年徐州市市区的住宅用途地价与房价的相关数据,在理论分析的基础上应用波动分析、协整分析及误差修正模型等计量分析方法,分析了该市地价与房价之间的关系。结果表明:在较长时间尺度上,徐州市市区的地价与房价存在稳定的均衡关系;在较短时间尺度上两者也存在相互影响,但房价的变动对地价的影响更大。

The present study of the relationship between land price and housing price has been focused on macro-analysis, without enough attention to regional differences of real estate market. Based on the data of residential land price and housing price in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, in the period from 2000 to 2010 and through theoretical analysis, and applying the approaches like Hodrick-Prescott filtering Test and Error Correction Model, this paper analyzes the relationship between land price and housing price of Xuzhou City. The results indicate that, in a relatively long period, a fairly stable balance exists between the land price and housing price of the city. However, in a shorter period, the fluctuation of housing price has showed a more obvious influence on the fluctuation of land price although mutual influence still exists.