创新不确定条件下溢出效应对企业创新决策影响

The Effects of Spillovers on the Enterprise’s Innovation Decision Under the Premise of Innovation Uncertainty

合作创新并不总是优于独立创新。在对创新成功的不确定性、技术溢出效应与产品替代性关系讨论的基础上,探讨了在两种创新模式下企业的投入产出水平,确定了两种情况下企业决定进行创新投入时的创新成功概率的最小值,得出结论如下:在技术溢出较小的情况下,产品替代性较低的企业应选择合作创新,产品替代性较高的企业应选择独立创新;在技术溢出较大的情况下,无论产品的替代性如何变化,合作创新对企业更有利。

Collaborative innovation is not always superior to independent innovation. Based on the discussion of the uncertainty of the success of innovation, technology spillovers and product substitution, this paper studied the input-output level of two innovative modes and identified the minimum of innovation success probability in two cases when the enterprise decided to invest. Results show that when the technology spillovers is low, the enterprise of lower alternative products should choose collaborative innovation and the enterprise of higher alternative products should choose independent innovation; when the technology spillovers is high, collaborative innovation is better no matter how the change of alternative products is.