女性乳腺癌个体危险度评估

Individual health risk appraisal model of breast cancer among women

目的:建立女性乳腺癌个体危险度评估模型,预测个体乳腺癌发生风险。方法:查阅2009—2011年发表的有关我国女性乳腺癌危险因素的系统评价或大样本的重大项目研究报道,筛选阳性结果变量为研究指标,最终纳入观察的指标包括初潮年龄、初产年龄、流产次数、是否哺乳喂养、绝经年龄、主动/被动吸烟、良性乳腺疾病史、肿瘤家族史、是否服用避孕药和文化程度。应用数学模型方法建立危险分数表,建立女性乳腺癌个体危险因素评价模型。结果:我国女性乳腺癌发病影响因素危险分数为初潮年龄<17岁1.10,初产年龄≥25岁1.31,流产次数≥2次2.56,哺乳喂养0.90,绝经年龄>44岁1.01,主动/被动吸烟1.49,良性乳腺疾病史2.41,肿瘤家族史1.93,服用避孕药1.39,文化程度为大学及以上2.04。结论:新建立的女性乳腺癌危险度评估模型基本适用于我国不同初潮年龄、初产年龄、流产次数、喂养方式、绝经年龄、主动/被动吸烟情况、良性乳腺疾病史、肿瘤家族史和服用避孕药状况及文化程度的个体。

Objective To establish an individual health risk appraisal model of breast cancer among women so as to predict the risk of breast cancer of a specific individual in the future.Methods Systemic review and reports of major scientific projects with big sample size which were related with risk factors of breast cancer among women in China were searched to select positive index.Age of menarche,age of first delivery,times of abortion,feeding style,age of menopause,smoking,benign breast diseases,family history of cancer,intake of contraceptive and educational level were choose to built a mathematical model.The mathematical model was used to build a risk score table and individual health risk appraisal model.Results The risk scores were obtained in individuals with different characteristics,with the results of 1.10 for age of the first menstrual period less than 17 years old,1.31 for age at first delivery more than 25 years old,2.56 for two or more times of abortions,0.90 for breast feeding,1.01 for age of menopause younger than 44 years old,1.49 for smoking,2.41 for having benign breast diseases,1.93 for having family history of cancer,1.39 for having intake of contraceptive and 2.04 for high educational level.Conclusion The newly established individual health risk appraisal model of breast cancer can fit for woman with different characteristics in age of menarche,age of first delivery,times of abortion,feeding style,age of menopause,smoking,benign breast diseases,family history of cancer,intake of contraceptive and educational level in China.